Nini DeSesa, chairman of McCann Erickson's New York office, says she is seeing many good women reach the top of the corporate pyramid only to come coppling down. She gives five tips to women with power who would like to avoid such a fate:
Don't Become Drunk With Power
Once at the top, many women seem to forget the negotiating skills that got them there, Ms. DiSesa says. "Our democratic 'female' patience is replaced by the more efficient 'male' dictatorship. It seems far easier to just tell people what to do than it is to keep negotiating for peaceful collaboration," she writes in Executive Excellence. Men aren't punished for that failing since they aren't expected to be nurturing, but there are different expectations for women - so when they aren't seen to be nurturing, it's often described as a betrayal of trust.
Don't Stop Reading The Room
There is an arrogance that can accompany being top dog. Suddenly everyone is trying to read you - second guessing you, and sucking up to you. Instant power can give a false sense of security, and women may drop their defences. But they aren't invincible, particularly if brought in from the outside. If you aren't doing the expected job or disgruntled subordinates are undermining you with innuendo, you could be in for a nasty surprise. Never stop reading the room to distinguish between the people watching your back to protect it and those using it for target practice.
Avoid Becoming 'a Real Bitch'
Some women who have attained power aren't just tough or firm. They can become "bitches," Ms. DiSesa says. They treat subordinates badly, keeping them out of the loop, hoarding information. They don't listen to anyone else and micromanage. Women at the top can adopt many of the 'male characteristics' they admire, but must be wary of gender differences in terms of expectations. "It's okay to be decisive, courageous and focused - as long as we are also collaborative, nurturing, and empathetic," she writes.
Remember: Make Rain
Women take the reins but sometimes forget they are held to the same standard as men: Make money or get out. Ms. DiSesa notes a blog posting titled How Five Women CEOs destroyed Confidence in the U.S. Economy. "They didn't have a list of five men who had screwed up," she writes. "There is a double standard, but no one seems to argue with the almighty buck."
Don't Forget to Be Better Than Men
The double standard remains, even at the top, so women can't relax. "We must always work smarter, think better, manage more humanely, and be more patient than men," she says.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading
R U L E # 1
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out; this is what took Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.
R U L E # 2
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
We trust our point is made. If "location, location, location" are the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are these: never add to a losing position.
R U L E # 3
Learn to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.
The great Jesse Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand.
R U L E # 4 DON'T HOLD ON TO LOSING POSITIONS
Capital is in two varieties: Mental and Real, and, of the two, the mental capital is the most important.
Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one's account balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one's mental capital even more seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.
R U L E # 5 GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS
The objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.
We can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really "high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.
R U L E # 6
Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength.
Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack for it will break the most readily, while in bull markets we need to ride the strongest wind for it shall carry us farther than others.
R U L E # 7
In a Bull Market we can only be long or neutral; in a bear market we can only be bearish or neutral.
In a bull market we can be neutral, modestly long, or aggressively long--getting into the last position after a protracted bull run into which we've added to our winning position all along the way. Conversely, in a bear market we can be neutral, modestly short, or aggressively short, but never, ever can we--or should we--be the opposite way even so slightly.
R U L E # 8
"Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent."
The University of Chicago "boys" have argued for decades that the markets are rational, but we in the markets every day know otherwise. We must learn to accept that irrationality, deal with it, and move on.
R U L E # 9
Trading runs in cycles; some are good, some are bad, and there is nothing we can do about that other than accept it and act accordingly.
Thus, when things are going well, trade often, trade large, and try to maximize the good fortune that is being bestowed upon you. However, when trading poorly, trade infrequently, trade very small, and continue to get steadily smaller until the winds have changed and the trading "gods" have chosen to smile upon you once again.
R U L E # 10
To trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician.
It is obviously imperative that we understand the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only then can we, or should we, trade.
R U L E # 11
Keep your technical systems simple.
The greatest traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines, they see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly, and they attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is the home of the young and untested.
R U L E # 12
In trading/investing, an understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.
Markets are, as we like to say, the sum total of the wisdom and stupidity of all who trade in them, and they are collectively given over to the most basic components of the collective psychology. The dot-com bubble was indeed a bubble, but it grew from a small group to a larger group to the largest group, collectively fed by mass mania, until it ended. The economists among us missed the bull-run entirely, but that proves only that markets can indeed remain irrational, and that economic fundamentals may eventually hold the day but in the interim, psychology holds the moment.
And finally the most important rule of all:
R U L E # 13
Do more of that which is working and do less of that which is not.
This is a simple rule in writing; this is a difficult rule to act upon. However, it synthesizes all the modest wisdom we've accumulated over thirty years of watching and trading in markets. Adding to a winning trade while cutting back on losing trades is the one true rule that holds--and it holds in life as well as in trading/investing.
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out; this is what took Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.
R U L E # 2
Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
We trust our point is made. If "location, location, location" are the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are these: never add to a losing position.
R U L E # 3
Learn to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.
The great Jesse Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand.
R U L E # 4 DON'T HOLD ON TO LOSING POSITIONS
Capital is in two varieties: Mental and Real, and, of the two, the mental capital is the most important.
Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one's account balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one's mental capital even more seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.
R U L E # 5 GO WHERE THE STRENGTH IS
The objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.
We can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really "high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.
R U L E # 6
Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength.
Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack for it will break the most readily, while in bull markets we need to ride the strongest wind for it shall carry us farther than others.
R U L E # 7
In a Bull Market we can only be long or neutral; in a bear market we can only be bearish or neutral.
In a bull market we can be neutral, modestly long, or aggressively long--getting into the last position after a protracted bull run into which we've added to our winning position all along the way. Conversely, in a bear market we can be neutral, modestly short, or aggressively short, but never, ever can we--or should we--be the opposite way even so slightly.
R U L E # 8
"Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent."
The University of Chicago "boys" have argued for decades that the markets are rational, but we in the markets every day know otherwise. We must learn to accept that irrationality, deal with it, and move on.
R U L E # 9
Trading runs in cycles; some are good, some are bad, and there is nothing we can do about that other than accept it and act accordingly.
Thus, when things are going well, trade often, trade large, and try to maximize the good fortune that is being bestowed upon you. However, when trading poorly, trade infrequently, trade very small, and continue to get steadily smaller until the winds have changed and the trading "gods" have chosen to smile upon you once again.
R U L E # 10
To trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician.
It is obviously imperative that we understand the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only then can we, or should we, trade.
R U L E # 11
Keep your technical systems simple.
The greatest traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines, they see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly, and they attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is the home of the young and untested.
R U L E # 12
In trading/investing, an understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.
Markets are, as we like to say, the sum total of the wisdom and stupidity of all who trade in them, and they are collectively given over to the most basic components of the collective psychology. The dot-com bubble was indeed a bubble, but it grew from a small group to a larger group to the largest group, collectively fed by mass mania, until it ended. The economists among us missed the bull-run entirely, but that proves only that markets can indeed remain irrational, and that economic fundamentals may eventually hold the day but in the interim, psychology holds the moment.
And finally the most important rule of all:
R U L E # 13
Do more of that which is working and do less of that which is not.
This is a simple rule in writing; this is a difficult rule to act upon. However, it synthesizes all the modest wisdom we've accumulated over thirty years of watching and trading in markets. Adding to a winning trade while cutting back on losing trades is the one true rule that holds--and it holds in life as well as in trading/investing.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
How to contribute, besides early and often
What it is
A registered retirement savings plan (RRSP), registered with Canada Revenue Agency, is intended to help Canadians save for retirement.
The money you invest in your RRSP is tax-deductible and the accumulated income grows tax-free until you withdraw the funds.
When you cash in your RRSP, or make a withdrawal from it, you usually have to pay tax. But when this is done in retirement, you will likely be in a lower tax bracket than when you were earning income.
How to do it
You can open an RRSP when you are 18, or as soon as you start earning income. As many experts point out, the earlier you start saving, the more you will accrue, thanks to the effects of compounded interest.
You will need a Social Insurance Number so your plan can be registered with the government.
You can set up your RRSP at any financial institution, such as your bank, credit union, trust or insurance company; there, you can also get advice about what sorts of investments are eligible. These include cash, guaranteed income certificates, mutual funds, and publicly traded stocks and bonds.
After you make a contribution, you will get a receipt to file with your income tax form; your contribution will count as a tax deduction.
You can make RRSP investments with more than one financial institution but because each one will be registered to your SIN, they will all be part of your RRSP portfolio. (When people talk about "buying an RRSP" they mean "making a contribution to my RRSP.")
Deadline alert
You have until Friday, Feb. 29, to make your contribution for the 2007 tax year.
Contribution limits
Generally, the amount you can invest in your RRSP for a given tax year is determined by your "deduction limit," also known as contribution room, which is calculated by Canada Revenue Agency.
Your personal limit is shown on the CRA "Notice of Assessment" that would have been sent to you after your 2006 tax return was processed.
You can also contact a CRA tax office, or inquire online at http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca to find out what your limit is. (If you belong to an employer-sponsored pension plan, your limit will take that into account.)
For the 2007 tax year, the most you can put into your RRSP is $19,000. If you are carrying forward unused contribution room from previous years, however, you may be allowed to contribute more.
If you exceed your limit, that is considered an over-contribution - which may be subject to a tax of 1 per cent per month. The lifetime allowance for over-contributions is $2,000.
Foreign assets
As of Jan. 1, 2005, you are allowed to hold foreign properties in your RRSP with no limits.
Self-directed RRSPs
With a self-directed RRSP, you can manage your own portfolio by investing in a variety of instruments - cash, bonds, shares, mutual funds, or even your mortgage. If you're considering this type of plan, it's wise to get advice from your financial institution or a professional financial adviser.
Spousal RRSPs
A spousal or common-law partner plan can ease the tax burden in a couple's retirement years if one spouse expects to have a significantly higher income than the other. The higher-income spouse makes the RRSP contributions and gets the tax deductions at the time - but the plan is registered in the name of the lower-income spouse, who can withdraw funds from it later.
Making withdrawals
Ideally, your RRSP is set up for the long term. But you can withdraw part, or all, of your savings at any time - so long as you realize that the money you withdraw becomes income and you will likely have to pay tax on it.
The government does have two programs that let you borrow from your RRSP without having to pay tax, so long as you meet certain requirements:
One is the Home Buyers' Plan. It's a one-time-only program that lets you withdraw up to $20,000 from your RRSP to buy your first home (but not subsequent homes or secondary properties); at least 1/15th of the amount you borrow must be repaid to your RRSP, starting two years after you make the withdrawal.
The other federal program is the Lifelong Learning Plan, which helps pay for postsecondary education or full-time training. You can withdraw up to $10,000 per calendar year from your RRSP for this purpose (to a maximum of $20,000 over four consecutive years). The student can be you or your spouse, but not your children. You then have to repay to your RRSP at least 10 per cent of the borrowed amount each year, over a maximum of 10 years.
RRSP lifespan
The last day on which you can contribute to your RRSP is Dec. 31 of the year in which you turn 71.
That is also the deadline by which you must close out your plan.
Most Canadians transfer their RRSP assets to a registered retirement income fund (RRIF) or buy an annuity with all or part of the proceeds. You could also convert your plan to cash and withdraw in one lump sum, but that would likely result in a very large tax bill.
Sources: Canada Revenue Agency, CARP websites
*****
Work ethic
56%
Proportion of Canadians who say they plan to work as long as possible.
38%
Portion who expect to work past age 65.
82%
Portion of Canadians who say they would keep working even if they had enough money to retire.
A registered retirement savings plan (RRSP), registered with Canada Revenue Agency, is intended to help Canadians save for retirement.
The money you invest in your RRSP is tax-deductible and the accumulated income grows tax-free until you withdraw the funds.
When you cash in your RRSP, or make a withdrawal from it, you usually have to pay tax. But when this is done in retirement, you will likely be in a lower tax bracket than when you were earning income.
How to do it
You can open an RRSP when you are 18, or as soon as you start earning income. As many experts point out, the earlier you start saving, the more you will accrue, thanks to the effects of compounded interest.
You will need a Social Insurance Number so your plan can be registered with the government.
You can set up your RRSP at any financial institution, such as your bank, credit union, trust or insurance company; there, you can also get advice about what sorts of investments are eligible. These include cash, guaranteed income certificates, mutual funds, and publicly traded stocks and bonds.
After you make a contribution, you will get a receipt to file with your income tax form; your contribution will count as a tax deduction.
You can make RRSP investments with more than one financial institution but because each one will be registered to your SIN, they will all be part of your RRSP portfolio. (When people talk about "buying an RRSP" they mean "making a contribution to my RRSP.")
Deadline alert
You have until Friday, Feb. 29, to make your contribution for the 2007 tax year.
Contribution limits
Generally, the amount you can invest in your RRSP for a given tax year is determined by your "deduction limit," also known as contribution room, which is calculated by Canada Revenue Agency.
Your personal limit is shown on the CRA "Notice of Assessment" that would have been sent to you after your 2006 tax return was processed.
You can also contact a CRA tax office, or inquire online at http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca to find out what your limit is. (If you belong to an employer-sponsored pension plan, your limit will take that into account.)
For the 2007 tax year, the most you can put into your RRSP is $19,000. If you are carrying forward unused contribution room from previous years, however, you may be allowed to contribute more.
If you exceed your limit, that is considered an over-contribution - which may be subject to a tax of 1 per cent per month. The lifetime allowance for over-contributions is $2,000.
Foreign assets
As of Jan. 1, 2005, you are allowed to hold foreign properties in your RRSP with no limits.
Self-directed RRSPs
With a self-directed RRSP, you can manage your own portfolio by investing in a variety of instruments - cash, bonds, shares, mutual funds, or even your mortgage. If you're considering this type of plan, it's wise to get advice from your financial institution or a professional financial adviser.
Spousal RRSPs
A spousal or common-law partner plan can ease the tax burden in a couple's retirement years if one spouse expects to have a significantly higher income than the other. The higher-income spouse makes the RRSP contributions and gets the tax deductions at the time - but the plan is registered in the name of the lower-income spouse, who can withdraw funds from it later.
Making withdrawals
Ideally, your RRSP is set up for the long term. But you can withdraw part, or all, of your savings at any time - so long as you realize that the money you withdraw becomes income and you will likely have to pay tax on it.
The government does have two programs that let you borrow from your RRSP without having to pay tax, so long as you meet certain requirements:
One is the Home Buyers' Plan. It's a one-time-only program that lets you withdraw up to $20,000 from your RRSP to buy your first home (but not subsequent homes or secondary properties); at least 1/15th of the amount you borrow must be repaid to your RRSP, starting two years after you make the withdrawal.
The other federal program is the Lifelong Learning Plan, which helps pay for postsecondary education or full-time training. You can withdraw up to $10,000 per calendar year from your RRSP for this purpose (to a maximum of $20,000 over four consecutive years). The student can be you or your spouse, but not your children. You then have to repay to your RRSP at least 10 per cent of the borrowed amount each year, over a maximum of 10 years.
RRSP lifespan
The last day on which you can contribute to your RRSP is Dec. 31 of the year in which you turn 71.
That is also the deadline by which you must close out your plan.
Most Canadians transfer their RRSP assets to a registered retirement income fund (RRIF) or buy an annuity with all or part of the proceeds. You could also convert your plan to cash and withdraw in one lump sum, but that would likely result in a very large tax bill.
Sources: Canada Revenue Agency, CARP websites
*****
Work ethic
56%
Proportion of Canadians who say they plan to work as long as possible.
38%
Portion who expect to work past age 65.
82%
Portion of Canadians who say they would keep working even if they had enough money to retire.
Friday, February 1, 2008
The best direct investment plays in the oil sands - DAVID PARKINSON
WHAT ARE WE LOOKING FOR?
As this week's Shifting Sands special report in The Globe and Mail has illustrated, the Athabasca oil sands of northern Alberta represent not only the future for the Canadian energy industry, but also one of the biggest potential sources of growth for the entire Canadian economy. At the same time, Canada's conventional oil and gas production is in its twilight years in this country.
The S&P/TSX capped energy index does give investors significant exposure to the oil sands story, but investors who buy the index also get a lot of stocks that are bulked up on fading conventional fields, not to mention drilling and oil field services companies, that in most cases, have, at best, only a tangential connection with the oil sands. We wanted to cut through the chaff and identify the best direct investment plays in the oil sands - stocks that offer the most pure exposure to future growth in this vast and internationally important oil reserve.
Fortunately, someone has done it for us.
THE CLAYMORE OIL SANDS ETF
Claymore Investments Inc., the Toronto-based fund management company, launched an exchange-traded fund called the Claymore Oil Sands ETF in the fall of 2006 - back when the price of crude was a mere $60 (U.S.) a barrel. The ETF is based on the Sustainable Oil Sands Sector Index, created in 2004 by Derek Gates, president of Calgary-based index developer Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
The index focuses on Canadian energy companies that are active producers in the oil sands and, more importantly, are expected to significantly increase their oil sands production over the next 10 years.
Stocks eligible for the index must have a minimum $500-million (Canadian) market capitalization at the time of the index rebalancing, which takes place once a year (in June). But market cap is only a small factor in determining weightings for the stocks within the index.
The main criteria in determining the stocks' index weightings relate to production levels. The index and ETF are tilted toward stocks with the highest current oil sands production, the highest projected oil sands production 10 years from now, and the highest proportion of their total production coming from oil sands. Measures for liquidity and market cap are also taken into account, but they are relatively small factors in the weighting formula, said Claymore president Som Seif.
HOW HAS IT DONE?
One- and three-year performance data show the oil sands-intensive stocks have, indeed, considerably outperformed the oil and gas sector as a whole.
In the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2007, the Claymore Oil Sands ETF generated returns of 22.5 per cent - trouncing the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, which was up a modest 7.9 per cent in the year. Over the past three years, total returns for the Sustainable Oil Sands Sector Index - which predates the Claymore ETF by a couple of years - are 43.3 per cent, more than double the 20.5 per cent of the TSX energy group.
As this week's Shifting Sands special report in The Globe and Mail has illustrated, the Athabasca oil sands of northern Alberta represent not only the future for the Canadian energy industry, but also one of the biggest potential sources of growth for the entire Canadian economy. At the same time, Canada's conventional oil and gas production is in its twilight years in this country.
The S&P/TSX capped energy index does give investors significant exposure to the oil sands story, but investors who buy the index also get a lot of stocks that are bulked up on fading conventional fields, not to mention drilling and oil field services companies, that in most cases, have, at best, only a tangential connection with the oil sands. We wanted to cut through the chaff and identify the best direct investment plays in the oil sands - stocks that offer the most pure exposure to future growth in this vast and internationally important oil reserve.
Fortunately, someone has done it for us.
THE CLAYMORE OIL SANDS ETF
Claymore Investments Inc., the Toronto-based fund management company, launched an exchange-traded fund called the Claymore Oil Sands ETF in the fall of 2006 - back when the price of crude was a mere $60 (U.S.) a barrel. The ETF is based on the Sustainable Oil Sands Sector Index, created in 2004 by Derek Gates, president of Calgary-based index developer Sustainable Wealth Management Ltd.
The index focuses on Canadian energy companies that are active producers in the oil sands and, more importantly, are expected to significantly increase their oil sands production over the next 10 years.
Stocks eligible for the index must have a minimum $500-million (Canadian) market capitalization at the time of the index rebalancing, which takes place once a year (in June). But market cap is only a small factor in determining weightings for the stocks within the index.
The main criteria in determining the stocks' index weightings relate to production levels. The index and ETF are tilted toward stocks with the highest current oil sands production, the highest projected oil sands production 10 years from now, and the highest proportion of their total production coming from oil sands. Measures for liquidity and market cap are also taken into account, but they are relatively small factors in the weighting formula, said Claymore president Som Seif.
HOW HAS IT DONE?
One- and three-year performance data show the oil sands-intensive stocks have, indeed, considerably outperformed the oil and gas sector as a whole.
In the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2007, the Claymore Oil Sands ETF generated returns of 22.5 per cent - trouncing the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, which was up a modest 7.9 per cent in the year. Over the past three years, total returns for the Sustainable Oil Sands Sector Index - which predates the Claymore ETF by a couple of years - are 43.3 per cent, more than double the 20.5 per cent of the TSX energy group.
What the experts do with their RRSPs - JEFF BUCKSTEIN
ADRIAN MASTRACCI, 60
Position: Founder and portfolio manager, KCM Wealth Management Inc., Vancouver
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 90 per cent in fixed income investments, 10 per cent equities.
Mr. Mastracci's RRSP allocation over most of the past decade has comprised about 80 per cent in fixed income instruments, such as treasury bills, banker's acceptances (commercial paper guaranteed by charter banks), and strip coupons.
The remaining 20 per cent is in equities, including blue-chip corporations, which he holds in baskets of Canadian funds, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and indexed funds. He has four baskets of funds that contain equities of firms in sectors such as financial services and the oil industry, among others.
In response to current "wobbly markets," he has temporarily increased the ratio of fixed income in his RRSP portfolio to 90 per cent, with a corresponding decrease in equities to 10 per cent. (Most of the equities he holds are outside his RRSP, to maintain a highly conservative retirement plan of what he calls his "pensionable assets.")
Target rate of return: Mr. Mastracci predicts his RRSP will provide a return of about 5.5 per cent in 2008, a bit below what he might have expected "if this was a normal year" that didn't feature difficult economic conditions and turbulent markets.
He notes that there is currently an inverted yield curve - with the rate of return for certain short-term investments exceeding those over the longer term - which should also have a negative impact on his RRSP.
Forecast: He expects stock markets to ride a "roller coaster" this year, with the TSX bouncing between a low of about 11,000 and high of nearly 15,000. In the United States, he sees the Dow dropping to about 10,500 and up to about 15,000.
Though he believes the United States is into at least a major slowdown, he remains bullish on commodities.
"Even if the consumer slides back a little bit in the United States, the population in China wants more goods and services, so they're going to take up some of the slack," Mr. Mastracci says.
He is also optimistic about the long-term prospects for sectors such as financial services, as well as real estate and industrial stocks, when the economy starts to pick up again in both Canada and the United States. However, he believes consumer-related stocks may experience "a bit of a pause this year, especially if the U.S. consumer keeps his hands in his pockets for a while."
"I'm cautious," he says, but he thinks there are going to be "some opportunities to look at some time this year - probably in the first half, maybe more in the second half."
Basic strategy: Mr. Mastracci, who usually contributes to his RRSP as early as possible in the year to maximize compounding interest, describes himself as a "growth business risk type of person - more of a buy-and-hold" investor. He has no immediate plans for retirement and doesn't intend to draw down his RRSP until age 72, after the proceeds are converted into a registered retirement income fund.
He maintains liquidity in his RRSP portfolio in the form of short-term instruments such as banker's acceptances, which make up about 25 per cent of the overall value and which can be "sold at a moment's notice."
By investing in baskets of equity funds such as ETFs and indexed funds, he counts on a hedging strategy so that even if certain sectors falter in bad times, it is unlikely the value of the whole basket will drop significantly enough to trigger a sale. He holds about 60 per cent in equities and 40 per cent in fixed income throughout his entire portfolio, including both RRSP and non-RRSP investments.
Mr. Mastracci tries to keep fixed income investments inside the RRSP, and dividend-paying securities outside where he can utilize the dividend tax credit.
The whole philosophy behind his RRSP is to keep things simple with quality, diversified investments. That way, he figures, "there's not a lot that's going to bite me hard" in difficult times.
BRIAN GOODING, 44
Position: Senior vice-president, alliance distribution, Fidelity Investments Canada ULC, Toronto
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 80 per cent in equities and 20 per cent in fixed income instruments.
Mr. Gooding values consistency and sticking to a game plan when it comes to his RRSP, which is split into a ratio of approximately 50 per cent Canadian equities; 30 per cent international equities and 20 per cent fixed income instruments - one that he has maintained for about a decade.
He prefers mutual funds to provide the diversification he wants in his portfolio. These include his largest Canadian holding of Fidelity True North Fund. In terms of international equities, instruments such as the Fidelity American Disciplined Equity Fund and Fidelity International Disciplined Equity Fund "give me exposure to all sectors," he says.
On the fixed income side, Mr. Gooding holds instruments such as the Fidelity Canadian Short Term Bond Fund and Fidelity Canadian Bond Fund in his RRSP.
Target rate of return:
"I like to think that on a five-year rolling average, my overall RRSP portfolio will [return] 9 per cent or 10 per cent."
Forecast: Mr. Gooding expects Canada's economic performance in 2008 to continue to rank at least near the "top of the group" compared to the United States and western Europe. While he expects at least a major U.S. slowdown, if not outright technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth), "I think our dollar and its growth over the last year suggests we are on our own trajectory and don't think you'll see us slide into a recession in Canada."
"I think there are some very good long-term fundamentals behind why the Canadian market will continue to do well. We're in a long-term cyclical bull market in commodities, and there will still be a large demand globally for the rich resources we have," he predicts.
Mr. Gooding, who has been in the financial services business for 21 years, says there is a familiar feeling about the current economic slowdown. "What I see consistently is that there's always something that creates havoc somewhere in the world. ... Each year, there are sectors and businesses that get themselves in trouble. They have short-term ramifications on markets," which tend to recover over time.
Basic strategy: Mr. Gooding likes to make his RRSP contribution early in the calendar year, as he has already done for the 2008 tax year, to capitalize on compound returns as early as possible. This strategy has made a substantial impact on the size of his RRSP portfolio over the long term, he says.
His basic investment strategy for the RRSP is driven by expectations of moderate growth; a well-diversified portfolio; and a buy-and-hold philosophy.
He knows that markets will occasionally decline, and that his portfolio will reflect that; by investing well, however, he hopes any drop in value will be mitigated.
When selecting mutual funds, he seeks fund managers who have "a proven track record," and can provide continuity in their investment philosophy.
He reviews his basic RRSP investing strategy every year; he also rebalances his portfolio annually. This year, for example "Canadian equities strongly outperformed fixed income and international equities, so I'd gotten a little overweight in Canadian equities, which went up to 59 per cent [from 50 per cent]."
On the other hand, "international equities went down to 25 per cent [from 30 per cent]; and fixed income went down to 16 per cent [from 20 per cent]."
Therefore, "I'm rebalancing a bit and putting more of [the excess Canadian value] back into international mutual funds and Canadian fixed income instruments."
***
LAURIE STEPHENSON, 46
Position: Co-founder and principal, Stephenson Daigle Financial, Halifax
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 90 per cent in mutual funds, 10 per cent in individual equities.
About 90 per cent of Ms. Stephenson's RRSP portfolio comprises mutual funds - most of them equity-based, along with some dividend funds. About 70 per cent of her mutual funds are Canadian-based, with the remainder split roughly evenly between the United States and other international sources.
Examples of Canadian holdings include Mackenzie Maxxum Dividend Fund, Mackenzie Maxxum Canadian Equity Growth Fund, Quadrus AIM Canadian Equity Growth Fund, and Mackenzie Universal Canadian Resource Fund. "Like many Canadian stock holders, I have resources, because I expect resources to continue to do well," she explains.
Her U.S. and international holdings include Mackenzie Universal U.S. Growth Leaders Fund and Mackenzie Maxxum Focus Far East Class. She is looking to increase her U.S. equity portion; "I think this is a great time to buy U.S. I think we're going to be buying at a discount over the next 12 months."
The remaining 10 per cent of her RRSP portfolio is in individual stocks such as Great West Life Assurance Co., Manufacturers Life Insurance Co., and Power Corp. of Canada.
Target rate of return: Ms. Stephenson always sets long-term, rather than short-term, goals for her RRSP return. She uses an 8 per cent return in her estimates, even though "I think that is fairly conservative for equities over the long term [and] since 1989, I've received a return of over 12 per cent in my portfolio."
She is also conservative when it comes to estimating what she will need in retirement. "Say I retire between 58 and 60; I expect I'll probably live 25 years after that," she says, but she is planning her retirement finances as if she will live to 100.
Forecast: Whether or not a technical recession occurs in 2008, investors still need to take a long term view, she says; she remains bullish over the longer horizon.
Referring to the damage caused by the sub-prime crisis, "I think it's pretty easy to take a negative view right now." However, she doesn't see economic weakness as being universal, even south of the border. "I know balance sheets are weak on U.S. financials right now," in response to the housing crisis, she says, but balance sheets in other sectors in both Canada and the United States still look strong. "I still think the resource sector in Canada has some legs, for sure."
Basic strategy: She tries to contribute to her RRSP portfolio as close to the start of the calendar year as she can, to take advantage of maximum compounding. Otherwise, she contributes on a regular, usually monthly, basis. "My portfolio has looked pretty good over the last couple of years, and I think part of that is because I've bought fairly regularly, regardless of whether the market was up or down."
She describes her basic investment style as being "highly aggressive," at least in part because "I think equities will outperform pretty much any other investment over time ... I'm not a big fan of fixed income. I just don't see any kind of yield."
She reviews her basic strategy annually with the assistance of business partner Trevor Daigle.
Furthermore, "every year, I do a rebalancing to make sure I'm still asset-allocated the way I'd like to be."
Ms. Stephenson recalls a past mistake that taught her a valuable lesson. "One year I didn't rebalance because frankly I'd done so well ... then the next year, after the funds had done beautifully well, they crashed."
***
BOB GORMAN, 53
Position: Chief portfolio strategist, TD Waterhouse, Toronto
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 80 per cent in equities and 20 per cent in fixed income instruments.
"I've probably got a higher tolerance for volatility than most, and a fairly long horizon. So my RRSP and related pension-type investments have always had a pretty high equity weight; I'm about 80 per cent equity and 20 per cent fixed income," Mr. Gorman says.
On the equity side, he selects individual shares of companies he expects will "grow faster than the economy in general," and has chosen Canadian-based stocks such as Research in Motion Ltd., Manufacturers Life Insurance Co. and Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. From the United States, he has equities such as Oracle Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Microsoft Corp.; Procter & Gamble Co., and Colgate-Palmolive Co.
The fixed income portion consists primarily of Canadian bonds, including funds such as TD Private Canadian Bond Return Fund, along with government bonds. He also holds global bonds through TD Global Bond Fund.
Target rate of return: Mr. Gorman expects to see a return of about 6 per cent or 7 per cent on his RRSP portfolio in 2008, in response to current market conditions, compared to the 8 per cent and 12 per cent return rate that he received from his high equity weighting over the years.
"I think this is going to be a year that's characterized by single-digit returns on the equity side - probably mid- to upper-single digits for the most part," he predicts. "After a pretty strong run in recent years, it's going to be more subdued."
Forecast: "We've had a sell-off in the market, which is really reflecting the current slowdown in growth in the economy," he says. However, "I think we'll see some sort of bottom in the coming months and still end up in positive territory for the year as a whole."
He expects a TSX gain in the 5 per cent to 7 per cent range for all of 2008. "I suspect the U.S. will do a tad better; six to eight per cent is what I suggest for the S&P 500."
Basic strategy: Mr. Gorman describes his investment style as "long-term growth-oriented," but emphasizes he is "not an extreme risk-taker." His RRSP is managed by Private Investment Counsel, TD Waterhouse's discretionary management arm for private clients, which he helped establish several years ago. His holdings are heavily weighted in what he refers to as "very high-quality equities;" selection is based on factors such as comparing stock price to earnings and corporate cash flow, as well as an assessment of management performance.
He reviews RRSP strategy about every six months. "My strategy is a long-term one, so it's unlikely I'm going to make a lot of changes. But I review it to see if there are any I want to make."
Mr. Gorman set up his RRSP about 30 years ago and feels he may have been too conservative during the early years. "When I was very young, I didn't avail myself of all the investment options that I could have. If I knew then what I know now I would probably have adopted a higher equity weight right from the beginning."
The experts caution readers that the financial decisions they make with respect to their own RRSPs are personal decisions that might not be relevant to the situation of others.
Position: Founder and portfolio manager, KCM Wealth Management Inc., Vancouver
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 90 per cent in fixed income investments, 10 per cent equities.
Mr. Mastracci's RRSP allocation over most of the past decade has comprised about 80 per cent in fixed income instruments, such as treasury bills, banker's acceptances (commercial paper guaranteed by charter banks), and strip coupons.
The remaining 20 per cent is in equities, including blue-chip corporations, which he holds in baskets of Canadian funds, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and indexed funds. He has four baskets of funds that contain equities of firms in sectors such as financial services and the oil industry, among others.
In response to current "wobbly markets," he has temporarily increased the ratio of fixed income in his RRSP portfolio to 90 per cent, with a corresponding decrease in equities to 10 per cent. (Most of the equities he holds are outside his RRSP, to maintain a highly conservative retirement plan of what he calls his "pensionable assets.")
Target rate of return: Mr. Mastracci predicts his RRSP will provide a return of about 5.5 per cent in 2008, a bit below what he might have expected "if this was a normal year" that didn't feature difficult economic conditions and turbulent markets.
He notes that there is currently an inverted yield curve - with the rate of return for certain short-term investments exceeding those over the longer term - which should also have a negative impact on his RRSP.
Forecast: He expects stock markets to ride a "roller coaster" this year, with the TSX bouncing between a low of about 11,000 and high of nearly 15,000. In the United States, he sees the Dow dropping to about 10,500 and up to about 15,000.
Though he believes the United States is into at least a major slowdown, he remains bullish on commodities.
"Even if the consumer slides back a little bit in the United States, the population in China wants more goods and services, so they're going to take up some of the slack," Mr. Mastracci says.
He is also optimistic about the long-term prospects for sectors such as financial services, as well as real estate and industrial stocks, when the economy starts to pick up again in both Canada and the United States. However, he believes consumer-related stocks may experience "a bit of a pause this year, especially if the U.S. consumer keeps his hands in his pockets for a while."
"I'm cautious," he says, but he thinks there are going to be "some opportunities to look at some time this year - probably in the first half, maybe more in the second half."
Basic strategy: Mr. Mastracci, who usually contributes to his RRSP as early as possible in the year to maximize compounding interest, describes himself as a "growth business risk type of person - more of a buy-and-hold" investor. He has no immediate plans for retirement and doesn't intend to draw down his RRSP until age 72, after the proceeds are converted into a registered retirement income fund.
He maintains liquidity in his RRSP portfolio in the form of short-term instruments such as banker's acceptances, which make up about 25 per cent of the overall value and which can be "sold at a moment's notice."
By investing in baskets of equity funds such as ETFs and indexed funds, he counts on a hedging strategy so that even if certain sectors falter in bad times, it is unlikely the value of the whole basket will drop significantly enough to trigger a sale. He holds about 60 per cent in equities and 40 per cent in fixed income throughout his entire portfolio, including both RRSP and non-RRSP investments.
Mr. Mastracci tries to keep fixed income investments inside the RRSP, and dividend-paying securities outside where he can utilize the dividend tax credit.
The whole philosophy behind his RRSP is to keep things simple with quality, diversified investments. That way, he figures, "there's not a lot that's going to bite me hard" in difficult times.
BRIAN GOODING, 44
Position: Senior vice-president, alliance distribution, Fidelity Investments Canada ULC, Toronto
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 80 per cent in equities and 20 per cent in fixed income instruments.
Mr. Gooding values consistency and sticking to a game plan when it comes to his RRSP, which is split into a ratio of approximately 50 per cent Canadian equities; 30 per cent international equities and 20 per cent fixed income instruments - one that he has maintained for about a decade.
He prefers mutual funds to provide the diversification he wants in his portfolio. These include his largest Canadian holding of Fidelity True North Fund. In terms of international equities, instruments such as the Fidelity American Disciplined Equity Fund and Fidelity International Disciplined Equity Fund "give me exposure to all sectors," he says.
On the fixed income side, Mr. Gooding holds instruments such as the Fidelity Canadian Short Term Bond Fund and Fidelity Canadian Bond Fund in his RRSP.
Target rate of return:
"I like to think that on a five-year rolling average, my overall RRSP portfolio will [return] 9 per cent or 10 per cent."
Forecast: Mr. Gooding expects Canada's economic performance in 2008 to continue to rank at least near the "top of the group" compared to the United States and western Europe. While he expects at least a major U.S. slowdown, if not outright technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth), "I think our dollar and its growth over the last year suggests we are on our own trajectory and don't think you'll see us slide into a recession in Canada."
"I think there are some very good long-term fundamentals behind why the Canadian market will continue to do well. We're in a long-term cyclical bull market in commodities, and there will still be a large demand globally for the rich resources we have," he predicts.
Mr. Gooding, who has been in the financial services business for 21 years, says there is a familiar feeling about the current economic slowdown. "What I see consistently is that there's always something that creates havoc somewhere in the world. ... Each year, there are sectors and businesses that get themselves in trouble. They have short-term ramifications on markets," which tend to recover over time.
Basic strategy: Mr. Gooding likes to make his RRSP contribution early in the calendar year, as he has already done for the 2008 tax year, to capitalize on compound returns as early as possible. This strategy has made a substantial impact on the size of his RRSP portfolio over the long term, he says.
His basic investment strategy for the RRSP is driven by expectations of moderate growth; a well-diversified portfolio; and a buy-and-hold philosophy.
He knows that markets will occasionally decline, and that his portfolio will reflect that; by investing well, however, he hopes any drop in value will be mitigated.
When selecting mutual funds, he seeks fund managers who have "a proven track record," and can provide continuity in their investment philosophy.
He reviews his basic RRSP investing strategy every year; he also rebalances his portfolio annually. This year, for example "Canadian equities strongly outperformed fixed income and international equities, so I'd gotten a little overweight in Canadian equities, which went up to 59 per cent [from 50 per cent]."
On the other hand, "international equities went down to 25 per cent [from 30 per cent]; and fixed income went down to 16 per cent [from 20 per cent]."
Therefore, "I'm rebalancing a bit and putting more of [the excess Canadian value] back into international mutual funds and Canadian fixed income instruments."
***
LAURIE STEPHENSON, 46
Position: Co-founder and principal, Stephenson Daigle Financial, Halifax
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 90 per cent in mutual funds, 10 per cent in individual equities.
About 90 per cent of Ms. Stephenson's RRSP portfolio comprises mutual funds - most of them equity-based, along with some dividend funds. About 70 per cent of her mutual funds are Canadian-based, with the remainder split roughly evenly between the United States and other international sources.
Examples of Canadian holdings include Mackenzie Maxxum Dividend Fund, Mackenzie Maxxum Canadian Equity Growth Fund, Quadrus AIM Canadian Equity Growth Fund, and Mackenzie Universal Canadian Resource Fund. "Like many Canadian stock holders, I have resources, because I expect resources to continue to do well," she explains.
Her U.S. and international holdings include Mackenzie Universal U.S. Growth Leaders Fund and Mackenzie Maxxum Focus Far East Class. She is looking to increase her U.S. equity portion; "I think this is a great time to buy U.S. I think we're going to be buying at a discount over the next 12 months."
The remaining 10 per cent of her RRSP portfolio is in individual stocks such as Great West Life Assurance Co., Manufacturers Life Insurance Co., and Power Corp. of Canada.
Target rate of return: Ms. Stephenson always sets long-term, rather than short-term, goals for her RRSP return. She uses an 8 per cent return in her estimates, even though "I think that is fairly conservative for equities over the long term [and] since 1989, I've received a return of over 12 per cent in my portfolio."
She is also conservative when it comes to estimating what she will need in retirement. "Say I retire between 58 and 60; I expect I'll probably live 25 years after that," she says, but she is planning her retirement finances as if she will live to 100.
Forecast: Whether or not a technical recession occurs in 2008, investors still need to take a long term view, she says; she remains bullish over the longer horizon.
Referring to the damage caused by the sub-prime crisis, "I think it's pretty easy to take a negative view right now." However, she doesn't see economic weakness as being universal, even south of the border. "I know balance sheets are weak on U.S. financials right now," in response to the housing crisis, she says, but balance sheets in other sectors in both Canada and the United States still look strong. "I still think the resource sector in Canada has some legs, for sure."
Basic strategy: She tries to contribute to her RRSP portfolio as close to the start of the calendar year as she can, to take advantage of maximum compounding. Otherwise, she contributes on a regular, usually monthly, basis. "My portfolio has looked pretty good over the last couple of years, and I think part of that is because I've bought fairly regularly, regardless of whether the market was up or down."
She describes her basic investment style as being "highly aggressive," at least in part because "I think equities will outperform pretty much any other investment over time ... I'm not a big fan of fixed income. I just don't see any kind of yield."
She reviews her basic strategy annually with the assistance of business partner Trevor Daigle.
Furthermore, "every year, I do a rebalancing to make sure I'm still asset-allocated the way I'd like to be."
Ms. Stephenson recalls a past mistake that taught her a valuable lesson. "One year I didn't rebalance because frankly I'd done so well ... then the next year, after the funds had done beautifully well, they crashed."
***
BOB GORMAN, 53
Position: Chief portfolio strategist, TD Waterhouse, Toronto
RRSP portfolio: Approximately 80 per cent in equities and 20 per cent in fixed income instruments.
"I've probably got a higher tolerance for volatility than most, and a fairly long horizon. So my RRSP and related pension-type investments have always had a pretty high equity weight; I'm about 80 per cent equity and 20 per cent fixed income," Mr. Gorman says.
On the equity side, he selects individual shares of companies he expects will "grow faster than the economy in general," and has chosen Canadian-based stocks such as Research in Motion Ltd., Manufacturers Life Insurance Co. and Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. From the United States, he has equities such as Oracle Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Microsoft Corp.; Procter & Gamble Co., and Colgate-Palmolive Co.
The fixed income portion consists primarily of Canadian bonds, including funds such as TD Private Canadian Bond Return Fund, along with government bonds. He also holds global bonds through TD Global Bond Fund.
Target rate of return: Mr. Gorman expects to see a return of about 6 per cent or 7 per cent on his RRSP portfolio in 2008, in response to current market conditions, compared to the 8 per cent and 12 per cent return rate that he received from his high equity weighting over the years.
"I think this is going to be a year that's characterized by single-digit returns on the equity side - probably mid- to upper-single digits for the most part," he predicts. "After a pretty strong run in recent years, it's going to be more subdued."
Forecast: "We've had a sell-off in the market, which is really reflecting the current slowdown in growth in the economy," he says. However, "I think we'll see some sort of bottom in the coming months and still end up in positive territory for the year as a whole."
He expects a TSX gain in the 5 per cent to 7 per cent range for all of 2008. "I suspect the U.S. will do a tad better; six to eight per cent is what I suggest for the S&P 500."
Basic strategy: Mr. Gorman describes his investment style as "long-term growth-oriented," but emphasizes he is "not an extreme risk-taker." His RRSP is managed by Private Investment Counsel, TD Waterhouse's discretionary management arm for private clients, which he helped establish several years ago. His holdings are heavily weighted in what he refers to as "very high-quality equities;" selection is based on factors such as comparing stock price to earnings and corporate cash flow, as well as an assessment of management performance.
He reviews RRSP strategy about every six months. "My strategy is a long-term one, so it's unlikely I'm going to make a lot of changes. But I review it to see if there are any I want to make."
Mr. Gorman set up his RRSP about 30 years ago and feels he may have been too conservative during the early years. "When I was very young, I didn't avail myself of all the investment options that I could have. If I knew then what I know now I would probably have adopted a higher equity weight right from the beginning."
The experts caution readers that the financial decisions they make with respect to their own RRSPs are personal decisions that might not be relevant to the situation of others.
Assessing the newsletters in a tough market year - ROB CARRICK
The stock market volatility we've seen lately is the sort of thing that makes investors question their ability to pick stocks and mutual funds.
This brings us to investing newsletters, which provide expert stock and fund recommendations. Can you depend on them for guidance in difficult markets? The answer, based on a snapshot review of the picks made a little over a year ago by five investing newsletters, is a qualified yes. Some newsletters did well, others stumbled. The message to investors: Tough stocks markets humble both pro and amateur alike.
Although the S&P/TSX composite total return index made 9.7 per cent (including dividends) last year, overall conditions for people who pick stocks for a living were as challenging as they've been since the last bear market. Take mutual fund managers as an example. In the Canadian equity category, the average return last year was well below the index at 6.8 per cent. Investing newsletters are another example. Some had a decent year in 2007, but the ratio of good picks to bad ones was poor in several cases.
The newsletters were assessed on the year-long performance of the stocks and funds recommended in January, 2007. It's the third year this exercise has been completed, and the toughest.
The average return for the stocks and funds chosen by the five newsletters was 7.7 per cent.
This reflects share price appreciation without dividends, and it doesn't factor in the effect of the Canada-U.S. exchange rate on the handful of American stocks that some of the newsletters recommended. The 7.7-per-cent return is less competitive than it might seem because it's based to a significant extent on some highly successful picks that overwhelmed the more numerous duds and disasters.
Let's review the January, 2007, picks of the five newsletters, which are listed alphabetically.
THE INTERNET WEALTH
BUILDER
Average Return: 17.9 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 7:7
Best Pick: Petrobank Energy and Resources, up 252 per cent
Worst Pick: Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, down 68 per cent
Overview: All in all, a good year for this weekly e-mail newsletter from personal finance writer Gordon Pape. Winners and losers were evenly split, but many of the losers were blue-chip names that are still defensible picks. Examples: Brookfield Asset Management, Altria Group and a mutual fund, PH&N Dividend Income.
Successes included a mix of blue-chip names such as Fortis and Canadian Utilities and lesser-known names like Stantec and Rocky Mountain Chocolate. The big score was Petrobank, which was suggested by contributor Yola Edwards, a technical analyst. Ms. Edwards also highlighted Angiotech, a speculative health care stock that seems out of step with the more conservative approach shown in the other recommendations.
THE INVESTMENT REPORTER
Average Return: 6.4 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 16:9
Best Pick: Alcan, up 86 per cent
Worst Pick: Metro Inc., down 28.5 per cent
Overview: As it always does in this annual evaluation, the Investment Reporter came through with solid mid-pack results that reflect its conservative mandate. You can see this in the fact that winners outnumbered the losers, and that none of the losers was annihilated.
Oddly, this was the only newsletter to pick Alcan, which soared in price as a result of a takeover by metals giant Rio Tinto that was completed in 2007. Results for this newsletter's '07 picks would have been better if its three bank selections, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada, had not been caught in the current bear market for financial stocks.
NA MARKETLETTER
Average Return: 8.6 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 7:9
Best Pick: Aur Resources, up 91 per cent
Worst Pick: Birim Goldfields, down 24 per cent
Overview: This newsletter serves the needs of traders more than long-term investors by highlighting stocks for readers to buy and then telling them when to get out. This focus on trading helps explain why there were many losers in this newsletter's recommendations, but none of them were catastrophic (down more than 50 per cent, let's say). If a pick doesn't work out, the NA MarketLetter moves on.
The January, 2007, recommendations made by this newsletter featured a mix of speculative resource plays and U.S. pharmaceutical giants. Both ended up as a win-lose proposition. For every Candente Resources (up 56 per cent), there was a GBS Gold (down 19 per cent).
STOCK PICKERS DIGEST
Average Return: -9.2 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 4:8
Best Pick: Aur Resources, up 97.7 per cent
Worst Pick: Tahera Diamond, down 93 per cent
Overview: This newsletter is from the same family as The Successful Investor and it caters to a more aggressive clientele. Stock Pickers Digest has been a stellar performer in past years, but its January, 2007, picks seem almost cursed. Aur and Oilexco were nice scores, but they were offset by the likes of Tahera, Miranda Gold and American Woodmark, a Nasdaq-listed maker of kitchen cabinets.
Interesting footnote: Tahera was the worst-performing stock among the January, 2006, picks offered by this newsletter. Stock Pickers Digest isn't a flagrant risk taker - larger stocks like Reitmans, Domino's Pizza and Metro Inc. were among its picks a year ago - but it does provide an example of how readers need to do some independent thinking about newsletter stock picks.
THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR
Average Return: 14.8 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 9:4
Best Pick: Agrium, up 89 per cent
Worst Pick: Gennum, down 26 per cent
Overview: Veteran stock picker Patrick McKeough has guided The Successful Investor to strong results in this survey over the past three years by recommending a mix of reliable blue chips and smaller stocks that, in the past year, included names like ShawCor, up 44.8 per cent, and Agrium.
The 14.8-per-cent average return for the January, 2007, picks highlighted by this newsletter beat the market, but it's all the more impressive when you look at consistency. More than any of the other five newsletters, this one managed to be right a lot more than it was wrong last year. Gennum was certainly a misfire, but its decline was overshadowed by the bad picks in other newsletters. The other losers ranged from Canadian National Railway, down 5.6 per cent, to vintner Andrew Peller, down 19.1 per cent.
Rating the newsletters
For the past three years, the Portfolio Strategy column has tracked the stock picks made each January by several major investing newsletters. Here's a review of the results:
Average 12-month return for Jan. '07 picks* Average 12-month return for Jan. '06 picks* Average 12-month return for Jan. '05 picks*
Internet Wealth Builder 17.90% 2.10% 25.20%
The Investment Reporter 6.40% 15.80% 17.50%
NA MarketLetter 8.60% 10.80% 12.90%
Stock Pickers Digest - 9.2% 26.10% 40.90%
The Successful Investor 14.80% 11.40% 26.30%
*Stocks were assumed to have been purchased at market prices either on the date they were recommended or on Jan. 3, 2007
***
Contacting the newsletters
Internet Wealth Builder
Description: By e-mail 44 times per year
Web: Buildingwealth.ca
Phone: 1-888-287-8229 or 416-693-8526
Cost: $129.95 per year
The Investment Reporter
Description: By mail on a weekly basis
Web: investmentreporter.com
Phone: 1-800-804-8846 or
416-869-1177
Cost: $97 intro rate, $327 regular rate
NA MarketLetter
Description: Distributed electronically
Web: na-marketletter.com
E-mail: Info@na-marketletter.com
Cost: $24.95 (U.S.) per month after a free 30-day trial
Stock Pickers Digest
Description: By mail on a monthly basis
Web: stockpickersdigest.ca
Phone: 1-888-292-0296 or 416-756-0888
Cost: $168 per year
The Successful Investor
Description: By mail on a monthly basis
Web: thesuccessfulinvestor.com
Phone: 1-888-292-0296 or 416-756-0888
Cost: $139 per year
This brings us to investing newsletters, which provide expert stock and fund recommendations. Can you depend on them for guidance in difficult markets? The answer, based on a snapshot review of the picks made a little over a year ago by five investing newsletters, is a qualified yes. Some newsletters did well, others stumbled. The message to investors: Tough stocks markets humble both pro and amateur alike.
Although the S&P/TSX composite total return index made 9.7 per cent (including dividends) last year, overall conditions for people who pick stocks for a living were as challenging as they've been since the last bear market. Take mutual fund managers as an example. In the Canadian equity category, the average return last year was well below the index at 6.8 per cent. Investing newsletters are another example. Some had a decent year in 2007, but the ratio of good picks to bad ones was poor in several cases.
The newsletters were assessed on the year-long performance of the stocks and funds recommended in January, 2007. It's the third year this exercise has been completed, and the toughest.
The average return for the stocks and funds chosen by the five newsletters was 7.7 per cent.
This reflects share price appreciation without dividends, and it doesn't factor in the effect of the Canada-U.S. exchange rate on the handful of American stocks that some of the newsletters recommended. The 7.7-per-cent return is less competitive than it might seem because it's based to a significant extent on some highly successful picks that overwhelmed the more numerous duds and disasters.
Let's review the January, 2007, picks of the five newsletters, which are listed alphabetically.
THE INTERNET WEALTH
BUILDER
Average Return: 17.9 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 7:7
Best Pick: Petrobank Energy and Resources, up 252 per cent
Worst Pick: Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, down 68 per cent
Overview: All in all, a good year for this weekly e-mail newsletter from personal finance writer Gordon Pape. Winners and losers were evenly split, but many of the losers were blue-chip names that are still defensible picks. Examples: Brookfield Asset Management, Altria Group and a mutual fund, PH&N Dividend Income.
Successes included a mix of blue-chip names such as Fortis and Canadian Utilities and lesser-known names like Stantec and Rocky Mountain Chocolate. The big score was Petrobank, which was suggested by contributor Yola Edwards, a technical analyst. Ms. Edwards also highlighted Angiotech, a speculative health care stock that seems out of step with the more conservative approach shown in the other recommendations.
THE INVESTMENT REPORTER
Average Return: 6.4 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 16:9
Best Pick: Alcan, up 86 per cent
Worst Pick: Metro Inc., down 28.5 per cent
Overview: As it always does in this annual evaluation, the Investment Reporter came through with solid mid-pack results that reflect its conservative mandate. You can see this in the fact that winners outnumbered the losers, and that none of the losers was annihilated.
Oddly, this was the only newsletter to pick Alcan, which soared in price as a result of a takeover by metals giant Rio Tinto that was completed in 2007. Results for this newsletter's '07 picks would have been better if its three bank selections, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia and National Bank of Canada, had not been caught in the current bear market for financial stocks.
NA MARKETLETTER
Average Return: 8.6 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 7:9
Best Pick: Aur Resources, up 91 per cent
Worst Pick: Birim Goldfields, down 24 per cent
Overview: This newsletter serves the needs of traders more than long-term investors by highlighting stocks for readers to buy and then telling them when to get out. This focus on trading helps explain why there were many losers in this newsletter's recommendations, but none of them were catastrophic (down more than 50 per cent, let's say). If a pick doesn't work out, the NA MarketLetter moves on.
The January, 2007, recommendations made by this newsletter featured a mix of speculative resource plays and U.S. pharmaceutical giants. Both ended up as a win-lose proposition. For every Candente Resources (up 56 per cent), there was a GBS Gold (down 19 per cent).
STOCK PICKERS DIGEST
Average Return: -9.2 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 4:8
Best Pick: Aur Resources, up 97.7 per cent
Worst Pick: Tahera Diamond, down 93 per cent
Overview: This newsletter is from the same family as The Successful Investor and it caters to a more aggressive clientele. Stock Pickers Digest has been a stellar performer in past years, but its January, 2007, picks seem almost cursed. Aur and Oilexco were nice scores, but they were offset by the likes of Tahera, Miranda Gold and American Woodmark, a Nasdaq-listed maker of kitchen cabinets.
Interesting footnote: Tahera was the worst-performing stock among the January, 2006, picks offered by this newsletter. Stock Pickers Digest isn't a flagrant risk taker - larger stocks like Reitmans, Domino's Pizza and Metro Inc. were among its picks a year ago - but it does provide an example of how readers need to do some independent thinking about newsletter stock picks.
THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR
Average Return: 14.8 per cent
Ratio of Winners to Losers: 9:4
Best Pick: Agrium, up 89 per cent
Worst Pick: Gennum, down 26 per cent
Overview: Veteran stock picker Patrick McKeough has guided The Successful Investor to strong results in this survey over the past three years by recommending a mix of reliable blue chips and smaller stocks that, in the past year, included names like ShawCor, up 44.8 per cent, and Agrium.
The 14.8-per-cent average return for the January, 2007, picks highlighted by this newsletter beat the market, but it's all the more impressive when you look at consistency. More than any of the other five newsletters, this one managed to be right a lot more than it was wrong last year. Gennum was certainly a misfire, but its decline was overshadowed by the bad picks in other newsletters. The other losers ranged from Canadian National Railway, down 5.6 per cent, to vintner Andrew Peller, down 19.1 per cent.
Rating the newsletters
For the past three years, the Portfolio Strategy column has tracked the stock picks made each January by several major investing newsletters. Here's a review of the results:
Average 12-month return for Jan. '07 picks* Average 12-month return for Jan. '06 picks* Average 12-month return for Jan. '05 picks*
Internet Wealth Builder 17.90% 2.10% 25.20%
The Investment Reporter 6.40% 15.80% 17.50%
NA MarketLetter 8.60% 10.80% 12.90%
Stock Pickers Digest - 9.2% 26.10% 40.90%
The Successful Investor 14.80% 11.40% 26.30%
*Stocks were assumed to have been purchased at market prices either on the date they were recommended or on Jan. 3, 2007
***
Contacting the newsletters
Internet Wealth Builder
Description: By e-mail 44 times per year
Web: Buildingwealth.ca
Phone: 1-888-287-8229 or 416-693-8526
Cost: $129.95 per year
The Investment Reporter
Description: By mail on a weekly basis
Web: investmentreporter.com
Phone: 1-800-804-8846 or
416-869-1177
Cost: $97 intro rate, $327 regular rate
NA MarketLetter
Description: Distributed electronically
Web: na-marketletter.com
E-mail: Info@na-marketletter.com
Cost: $24.95 (U.S.) per month after a free 30-day trial
Stock Pickers Digest
Description: By mail on a monthly basis
Web: stockpickersdigest.ca
Phone: 1-888-292-0296 or 416-756-0888
Cost: $168 per year
The Successful Investor
Description: By mail on a monthly basis
Web: thesuccessfulinvestor.com
Phone: 1-888-292-0296 or 416-756-0888
Cost: $139 per year
A surfer's paradise of free advice, research tools - PAUL BRENT
The old adage "you get what you pay for," doesn't necessarily apply to the Internet and investing. In fact, the Web is awash with free or near-free research tools, articles, sites and blogs aimed at the do-it-yourself investor.
The biggest challenge in drawing up a list of invaluable Internet locales is to make it short enough to be useful, yet long enough that it doesn't exclude some lesser-known gems.
THE 'MUST-HAVES'
http://www.bnn.ca: The name was changed, but BNN still has many free video replays of its financial programs and financial news reports.
http://www.globeinvestor.com: Yes, it's the home team, but the site offers breaking news, custom fund and stock screens and many other useful tools.
http://finance.yahoo.com: Yahoo's site houses a wealth of financial news, stock quotes, market roundups and personal finance columns.
http://www.thestreet.com: This free-membership U.S. site was one of the first and is still one of the best. Contains video interviews, stock news, reports, recommendations and investment personality Jim Cramer.
http://www.bloomberg.com: Yes, the tidal wave of data may induce seizures in some people, but pretty much everything you need is here. Also includes such cool tools as calculators, portfolio trackers and market monitors.
http://www.motleyfool.com: While some of this U.S. site requires a subscription, news, some columns and lots of cool calculators come free.
SPECIALTY SITES
http://www.goldmoney.com: This site has the latest prices on precious metals and is a place where Canadians can sign up and directly purchase gold bullion by the ounce, using wired funds from a Canadian bank account. The gold is held for safekeeping in a London vault and can be sold at any time following the online instructions.
http://www.321energy.com:This free energy-related site includes news, commentaries by energy experts, and the latest futures prices on crude oil, natural gas and uranium.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com: Covers such resources as uranium, gold, base metals, iron ore and oil and natural gas.
www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=6781: No, trusts aren't dead yet, and this free (but registration-required) site has attracted a group of knowledgeable amateurs on the subject of income-producing Canadian income trusts. They give their opinions and report the latest news and analyst recommendations.
www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=10677&clear
=1&pt=m: How is a city boy, or girl, going to know what's happening in the world of agriculture? This free forum (again, you must register) features agricultural stock recommendations, analyst reports and news from a group of experienced investors.
http://investingforincome.blogspot.com/2008/01/22-startling-predictions-for-2008-and.html: This participatory blog has useful recommendations on investing in Canadian income trusts, high-yield dividend stocks and the like. A good place to hunker down and wait out the market correction.
www.hardassetsinvestor.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=
section&id=2&Itemid=4: Full-time investor and former Globe and Mail contributor Murray Soupcoff, who leans toward "things in the ground" as an investment theme, recommends this site for those into gold, silver, oil, agricultural products and other things earthy.
THE PROS
The following blogs and websites are run by financial advisers or other investment professionals.
www.valueinvestigator.com/index2.shtml: A free site for Canadian value investors run by ABC Funds portfolio manager Irwin Michael. It includes stock recommendations and value investing links.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm: A personal blog by Raymond James broker/analyst Jeffrey Saut. Recent claim to fame: he accurately called the current bear correction. His website includes a blog and daily audio comments.
http://www.reportonmoney.com: This free site has tutorials about investing and regular market commentaries from John Stephenson, a veteran Canadian energy analyst and a regular commentator on energy.
http://www.wheredoesallmymoneygo.com: A blog from ScotiaMcLeod financial adviser and author Preet Banerjee, which includes regular commentary and many links.
http://petercohan.com: This U.S. site from oft-quoted economist and venture capitalist Peter Cohan features a blog to which you can subscribe. Warning: Mr. Cohan writes frequently.
http://www.kcmwealth.com: The site of Vancouver's KCM Wealth Management Inc. features a blog from portfolio manager Adrian Mastracci as well as useful articles and newsletters.
http://www.dsam.ca: The Internet home of tech guru Duncan Stewart Asset Management just got up and running, so it's bare bones yet. Includes Mr. Stewart's print and CBC radio column and will soon feature a blog, he promises.
GIFTED AMATEURS
http://nancyzimmerman.com: Vancouver-based self-described "money coach" Nancy Zimmerman doesn't sell financial products but gets people thinking about how they handle money. She's a busy blogger and offers lots of links to other sites.
http://www.thefinancialblogger.com: A former banker who uses only his first name, Mike, hooked up with a chartered financial analyst named Pierre and the two have created a site to provide tips and information about personal finance and investment. (Also contains many links to other bloggers.)
http://www.canadianfinancialdiy.blogspot.com: This anonymous "mid-50s Canadian" has been managing his own investments for the past decade. He goes through the rationale of his strategies and even includes his main portfolio spreadsheet at the bottom of the site.
The biggest challenge in drawing up a list of invaluable Internet locales is to make it short enough to be useful, yet long enough that it doesn't exclude some lesser-known gems.
THE 'MUST-HAVES'
http://www.bnn.ca: The name was changed, but BNN still has many free video replays of its financial programs and financial news reports.
http://www.globeinvestor.com: Yes, it's the home team, but the site offers breaking news, custom fund and stock screens and many other useful tools.
http://finance.yahoo.com: Yahoo's site houses a wealth of financial news, stock quotes, market roundups and personal finance columns.
http://www.thestreet.com: This free-membership U.S. site was one of the first and is still one of the best. Contains video interviews, stock news, reports, recommendations and investment personality Jim Cramer.
http://www.bloomberg.com: Yes, the tidal wave of data may induce seizures in some people, but pretty much everything you need is here. Also includes such cool tools as calculators, portfolio trackers and market monitors.
http://www.motleyfool.com: While some of this U.S. site requires a subscription, news, some columns and lots of cool calculators come free.
SPECIALTY SITES
http://www.goldmoney.com: This site has the latest prices on precious metals and is a place where Canadians can sign up and directly purchase gold bullion by the ounce, using wired funds from a Canadian bank account. The gold is held for safekeeping in a London vault and can be sold at any time following the online instructions.
http://www.321energy.com:This free energy-related site includes news, commentaries by energy experts, and the latest futures prices on crude oil, natural gas and uranium.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com: Covers such resources as uranium, gold, base metals, iron ore and oil and natural gas.
www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=6781: No, trusts aren't dead yet, and this free (but registration-required) site has attracted a group of knowledgeable amateurs on the subject of income-producing Canadian income trusts. They give their opinions and report the latest news and analyst recommendations.
www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=10677&clear
=1&pt=m: How is a city boy, or girl, going to know what's happening in the world of agriculture? This free forum (again, you must register) features agricultural stock recommendations, analyst reports and news from a group of experienced investors.
http://investingforincome.blogspot.com/2008/01/22-startling-predictions-for-2008-and.html: This participatory blog has useful recommendations on investing in Canadian income trusts, high-yield dividend stocks and the like. A good place to hunker down and wait out the market correction.
www.hardassetsinvestor.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=
section&id=2&Itemid=4: Full-time investor and former Globe and Mail contributor Murray Soupcoff, who leans toward "things in the ground" as an investment theme, recommends this site for those into gold, silver, oil, agricultural products and other things earthy.
THE PROS
The following blogs and websites are run by financial advisers or other investment professionals.
www.valueinvestigator.com/index2.shtml: A free site for Canadian value investors run by ABC Funds portfolio manager Irwin Michael. It includes stock recommendations and value investing links.
http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm: A personal blog by Raymond James broker/analyst Jeffrey Saut. Recent claim to fame: he accurately called the current bear correction. His website includes a blog and daily audio comments.
http://www.reportonmoney.com: This free site has tutorials about investing and regular market commentaries from John Stephenson, a veteran Canadian energy analyst and a regular commentator on energy.
http://www.wheredoesallmymoneygo.com: A blog from ScotiaMcLeod financial adviser and author Preet Banerjee, which includes regular commentary and many links.
http://petercohan.com: This U.S. site from oft-quoted economist and venture capitalist Peter Cohan features a blog to which you can subscribe. Warning: Mr. Cohan writes frequently.
http://www.kcmwealth.com: The site of Vancouver's KCM Wealth Management Inc. features a blog from portfolio manager Adrian Mastracci as well as useful articles and newsletters.
http://www.dsam.ca: The Internet home of tech guru Duncan Stewart Asset Management just got up and running, so it's bare bones yet. Includes Mr. Stewart's print and CBC radio column and will soon feature a blog, he promises.
GIFTED AMATEURS
http://nancyzimmerman.com: Vancouver-based self-described "money coach" Nancy Zimmerman doesn't sell financial products but gets people thinking about how they handle money. She's a busy blogger and offers lots of links to other sites.
http://www.thefinancialblogger.com: A former banker who uses only his first name, Mike, hooked up with a chartered financial analyst named Pierre and the two have created a site to provide tips and information about personal finance and investment. (Also contains many links to other bloggers.)
http://www.canadianfinancialdiy.blogspot.com: This anonymous "mid-50s Canadian" has been managing his own investments for the past decade. He goes through the rationale of his strategies and even includes his main portfolio spreadsheet at the bottom of the site.
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